The worlds press have from the beginning been fueling the intimation that the pilot deliberately flew his aircraft along a zigzag up and down course across Malaysia and then inexplicably turned hard left to drown himself in the southern Indian Ocean.
That intimation has been fed to the press by unsourced, unverified leaks from the Malaysian Government and by the silence of the other governments involved.
The official releases have been worded to be non-specific and to lend credibility to the unofficial leaks.
After three months of carefully examining every snippet of information, this is what I know ;
- MH370 registration 9M-MRO disappeared from ATC SSR radar and ADS-b(FR24) at a point near IGARI at time 0121MYT(1721UTC). 8/7th March.
- A series of 6½ transmissions purportedly from the aircraft were received commencing at 0229MYT(1829UTC) and ceasing at 0819MYT(0019UTC) 8th March.
Having some knowledge of ATC, aircraft performance, radar and navigation, I have proven to my own satisfaction(previous blog) that the official track across Malaysia is a load of bollocks.
Unless Malaysia converted that B777 to the world’s most advanced military transport, that track is impossible.
They would have us believe that it achieved supersonic speed while conducting violent climbs, descents and turns.
So if it didn’t do that, what did it do and where did it go?
Right now I’m left with a gap between two times, 1721UTC and 1829UTC.
A direct track between those times is right on the performance limit for a B777 loaded with cargo and passengers.
Now I’m through the looking glass because whilst I’m sufficiently confident to call bullshit in my own specialization, I’m reluctant to argue with satellite scientists on their home ground.
BUT I successfully called bullshit on the submarine pings, squeaks, burps and farts so watch this space.
As the gutter press have already decided that there is significance in a private flight simulator and its contents, I’m going to focus on that aspect.
Flight simulators are owned by airlines for the purpose of crew training, they are hugely expensive and are hydraulically mounted to give crews a realistic experience in their training procedures. They must comply with ICAO standards and undergo periodic compliance checks. (Boeing simulators)
Conversely, Microsoft FS is a toy which replicates some of the experience of flight but even the best 3rd party add-ons don’t fully replicate all the complexities and systems of a modern airliner. Its digital coding cannot mimic the properties of aerodynamic flight and merely creates a virtual experience of flight without the fluid dynamics of the real thing. Unfortunately there are stupid children who believe they are flying a real plane and some put that into practice by crashing light aircraft.
I imagine there are also would be hijackers who believe that if they can fly a Microsoft aircraft then they’re able to fly the real thing. Forget it fella, you wouldn't even be able to taxi to the threshold without bogging on the turf, let alone fly it.
An airline captain with 18,000 hours knows the difference between playing with a toy and the skills required to do his job. For a pilot it’s great relaxation because he can do what he wants without the consequences and stress of flying a real plane.
I also know the difference because I’ve had a lot of fun with my own FS and consider it the best computer game ever. Yes it’s a game and nothing more.
If I were to suddenly disappear and my hard-drive examined, it would reveal many astounding scenarios.
I have an excellent model of the Admiral Kuznetsov and my own Russian camouflaged SU33 to land on its deck. I’ve moored the carrier in the Thames estuary and flown my SU33 at 100 feet above the river all the way to Heathrow. I’ve also flown that plane through many European cities at treetop height and marvelled at the detail of the scenery I’ve added.
I have two B52’s, one runs in CFS2 and has graphic bombing capabilities with 6 x 50 megaton big bananas which I’ve dropped on the major cities along the Australian east coast. CFS2 is Pacific only so my more detailed B52 I’ve flown from Fairford to Gardermoen but haven’t got around to Diego Garcia yet. I’d like to though, just to see what a yank Indian Ocean base looks like. My long flights, I set up on autopilot and then go away, make a coffee, watch TV and just let the program run. I set audible warnings at top of descent so I can come back and land (or crash!)
I envy Captain Zaharie his triple monitor Eyefinity system and if I earned an airline pilots salary that’s exactly the toy I’d have.
It doesn’t mean I’m planning to bomb London, Australia or have disloyal sympathies. It’s just a game far less violent than Call of Duty or other popular video games. It’s more absorbing because as well as the fun of flying there’s the satisfaction of building it yourself, applying scenery, graphic effects, different aircraft and many other layers which can be added.
A fantasy scenario of any kind implies nothing more than a desire to have fun with aeroplanes which can’t be done in real life. Captain Zaharie was a man after my own heart only far more accomplished and if anyone wants to suspect him of foul play then you’d better do the same for me because I’m also divorced and like playing with aeroplanes in a computer. Using my toy keeps my brain from atrophy and early dementia because of the concentration required, for a pilot like Zaharie, it keeps him sharp and is more indicative of his dedication. I need to shout this for the benefit of the mass media;
A home simulator is a toy with no aviation regulation, accurate verification of performance, content or update. It's full of software bugs and inaccuracies. No real pilot would consider using it for any kind of training or practice and its only purpose is as a game.
This second round of rehashed pilot bashing is more indicative of the press too stupid and lazy to conduct objective journalism and a Malaysian government trying to shift focus from their own incompetence and away from anything which might actually find the plane.
Their actions and clumsy leaks have convinced me that they want everyone to look west towards the Indian Ocean, in fact look anywhere except where the plane first disappeared. The only information they've given to support that is a bogus track which I believe to be UAE343 and a second track of what I think is a military outbound from Butterworth. Little wonder they have a sealed file.
A physicist has claimed that Inmarsat used the wrong co-ordinates for the Perth ground station of 3S instead of 31S. I've asked if this changes the BTO values. He said it only changes BFO. How can a 30 degree error not change BTO ? If true that error must surely move all the ping arcs closer to the satellite. As Inmarsat are holding all the cards, it's impossible for me to check this but I suspect a significant error.
I've already shown that the current positions are on the performance limit for that aircraft. Ping arcs any further west make it impossible for anything other than a supersonic aircraft to reach the first arc. Am I beginning to think the sat pings are wrong? Yes.
What am I left with now ?
1. It wasn't seen on radar.
2. Last known position.
9M-MRO was NOT a supersonic stealth with advanced electronic spoofing devices. It also didn't have the world's best pilot able to conduct violent manoevres at high speed while simultaneously disabling all transmission devices. It had a pilot with vast airliner experience but no military flying.
So where is it?
Within a hundred nautical miles of its last known position.
(Until now Malaysia have allowed everyone else to do the searching and instead of sitting on their hands, the least they could do is make a thorough search of that area, including submarine, rather than rely on just esoteric calculation)
Two people have been sacked for possibly being right.
Mike McKay for his oil rig sighting and Mitchell Casado for demonstrating the impossibility of the official version in a simulator. Why there has been a huge effort to look where it isn't, is a question for the conspiracy theorists, my part has been to decipher the morass of disinformation, burps and farts.